How to trade prediction markets
Prediction markets, powered by Polymarket, are live in MetaMask Mobile! You can trade on real-world outcomes like sports, politics, and crypto directly within the app and earn points for each transaction.
Not available to users in the following regions: USA, UK, France, Ontario (Canada), Belgium, Poland, Singapore, Australia, Taiwan, Thailand, Germany, Romania and countries on the USA sanctions list. Refer to Polymarket TOS.
Not intended for UK persons.
If you’re new to this kind of market and want an explainer, refer to What are prediction markets?.
Once ready, open the app to trade. This guide covers everything you need from depositing and claiming funds, to opening and managing a trade.
Jump to the section you need:
Add funds
To start trading you need to fund your account. You can pay with any EVM token, your funds will be bridged and ready to trade. A Polymarket account is created for you automatically.
- Tap ‘Add funds’.
- Choose the token and amount you want to deposit.
- Tap ‘Continue’ to review the details.
- Confirm by tapping ‘Add funds’.
You’ll use this balance to buy shares in specific outcomes.
Existing Polymarket account
If you have a Polymarket account that uses MetaMask as a signer (or any wallet that can be imported to MetaMask), your balance and activity will automatically sync and appear in the Predictions tab in MetaMask. It’s the same account, you can just continue trading within MetaMask Mobile.
If your Polymarket account was created using email login, it won’t appear in MetaMask. In this case, MetaMask will automatically create a new Polymarket account for you the first time you deposit funds, so you can trade directly in the app.
Prediction markets carry risks including potential manipulation, biased trading, liquidity constraints, and regulatory uncertainty. Don’t trade with money you aren’t prepared to lose.
Place a prediction
Once your balance is ready, you can place your first trade.
- Browse or search markets from the main ‘Predictions’ page.
- Tap a market to view its details, toggle to the ‘About’ tab to see volume, end date, and rules.
- Choose your predicted outcome and tap ‘Yes’ or ‘No’. Each share is priced between $0 and $1.
- Enter the amount you want to stake. You’ll see your potential winnings displayed automatically.
- Review the details and tap ‘Confirm’ to place your guess.
Every trade earns MetaMask Rewards points. Currently you can earn 2 points for every $1 trade with future boost potential. Check the app for ongoing campaigns.
Your open predictions appear on the main Predictions homepage. You can start new trades anytime by tapping ‘New prediction’ or add to existing positions by repeating the same steps above.
Track market movement
After placing your trade, you can monitor how the market evolves in real time. Prices generally reflect collective sentiment, they’ll move as data and liquidity enters/exits the market.
- Unrealized P&L shows how much you would make or lose if you cashed out right now on your open position. For a more detailed calculation, see the Questions section below.
- You can open additional positions on the same market if you want to adjust your exposure.
- Use the chart to view market activity across different time periods and track price shifts as sentiment changes.
Cash out
You can cash out of any positions before the market resolution date.
- Tap current position and view estimated profit or loss
- Tap ‘Cash out’
- Review your summary and confirm
Your ‘Available balance’ will increase or decrease by that amount based on your profit or loss.
Market resolution
You can track resolved markets in the Predictions homepage if you scroll all the way to the bottom. Every market has a resolution date. At this point the market closes and you claim your winnings (if any).
If your prediction is correct, you can redeem each share for $1. If wrong, you receive nothing and lose your original stake. All payouts happen after the oracle finalizes the outcome.
Claim winnings
- Navigate to the ‘Predictions’ tab
- Tap the ‘Claim’ button above your available balance
- Tap ‘Claim winnings’ to confirm
After the claiming process, your available balance will be updated with the new amount.
Withdraw funds
You’ll receive USDC.e in your MetaMask account on the Polygon network. You can swap within MetaMask to move your tokens to other networks easily.
- Tap on ‘Available balance’ and select ‘Withdraw’
- Enter the amount you want to withdraw
- Review details and confirm
Questions
Who is the provider?
Polymarket, the world’s leading prediction markets platform, is the provider behind MetaMask Predictions.
What are the fees?
To make predictions on MetaMask, you pay a 4% transaction fee to MetaMask and Polymarket. No fees are taken on deposits, cash outs, or withdrawals.
What Rewards points do I earn from Prediction trades?
You earn 2 points for every $1 you trade with MetaMask prediction markets.
How is unrealized P&L calculated?
P&L stands for profit and loss. It’s unrealized until you cash out your position.
The ‘Unrealized P&L’ displayed on the Predictions homepage is the total value of all your open positions compared with the amount you originally staked. It shows how much your positions are estimated right now based on current market prices.
Per-position P&L:
- $ Unrealized P&L = Current estimated value − Original stake
- % Unrealized P&L = ($ P&L ÷ Original stake) × 100
For example:
- Position A: $3 on Yes → now valued at $4 = +$1 (+33%)
- Position B: $5 on Yes → now valued at 4.50 = -$0.50 (-10%)
- Position C: $2 on Yes → now valued at $3 = +$1 (+50%)
Your total Unrealized P&L is simply the sum of all positions:
Total Unrealized P&L = +$1 – $0.50 + $1 = +$1.50 (+15%)
You staked $10 total, and your combined unrealized profit is +$1.50, which equals a 15% gain.
What tokens can I fund my account with?
You can fund your Predict account with any EVM token (e.g., ETH, mUSD, USDC, USDT, LINEA, etc.). Solana tokens are not supported yet.
Do I need POL? What if I don’t have any POL on my account?
You don’t need to hold Polygon’s native token, POL, in order to deposit EVM tokens besides USDC.e or withdraw funds from your Predictions account. We help you cover the transaction fee (gas payment) when you claim your winnings and withdraw funds.
Need help?
Start a conversation with our support team below.